ABSTRACT
The analysis of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) gene copy numbers in wastewater samples can provide quantitative information on Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) cases within a sewer catchment. However, many wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) studies have neglected virus decay during the wastewater transportation process in sewers while back-calculating COVID-19 prevalence. Among various sewer condition parameters, wastewater temperature and dilution by fresh/saltwater infiltration may result in a significant change to the virus decay, in terms of both infectivity and Ribonucleic Acid (RNA). This paper reviewed the literature to identify and discuss the effects of temperature and water types (i.e., wastewater, freshwater, and seawater) on coronavirus decay based on the decay rate constants that were collected from published papers. To evaluate the importance of virus decay, a sensitivity analysis was then conducted with decay rates of SARS-CoV-2 RNA based on a WBE back-calculation equation. Finally, the decay rates of coronavirus in wastewater were also compared with those of other viruses to further understand the difference among virus species. The decay of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found to be less impacted by temperature variation than viable coronaviruses. Nevertheless, WBE back-calculation was still sensitive to the RNA decay rates increased by warm wastewater (i.e., over 26 °C), which could lead to a two-times higher relative variance in estimated COVID-19 prevalence, considering the wastewater temperature variation between 4 and 37 °C in a sewer catchment with a 12-h hydraulic retention time. Comparatively, the sensitivity of the WBE estimation to the enveloped SARS-CoV-2 was greater than nonenveloped enteric viruses, which were less easily degradable in wastewater. In addition, wastewater dilution by stormwater inflow and accompanied cold weather might alleviate the decay of coronavirus infectivity, thus increasing the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission through wastewater. Overall, this paper aims to better understand the impact of in-sewer processes on coronavirus decay and its potential implications for WBE. The outcome could quantitatively inform WBE and improve awareness of the increased risk of COVID-19 infection via wastewater during heavy rainfall events. Given the identified scarcity of data available for coronavirus decay in salt water or with chemical additions, future research on the fate of SARS-CoV-2 subjected to chemical dosing for sewer or wastewater treatment plant operations is recommended. © 2023 by the authors.
ABSTRACT
Since the first case of COVID-19 in Ireland was recorded policy makers have introduced mitigation measures to control the spread of infection. Infection is spread by both known cases and hidden, undetected asymptomatic cases. Asymptomatic individuals are people who transmit the virus but display no clinical symptoms. Current evidence reveals that this population is a major contributing factor to the spread of the disease. There is little or no knowledge of the scale of the hidden prevalence of all infections both asymptomatic and symptomatic in Ireland. Furthermore, as governments plan for the roll out of imminent immunisation programmes, the need to know the scale of the hidden prevalence and hence knowledge of the level of immunisation required is essential. We describe and analyse the numbers of reported cases of COVID-19 in Ireland from the first case in February 2020 to mid-December 2020. Using the method of back-calculation we provide estimates of the asymptomatic prevalence of cases from June to December 2020. The descriptive analysis highlighted two epidemic waves of known cases in the time period. Wave two from June to December included twice as many cases as wave one and cases were significantly younger. The back-calculation estimates of asymptomatic prevalence during this time period revealed that for every case known there was an additional unknown case and total prevalence in wave two was estimated to be approximately 95,000 as opposed to the reported 48,390 cases. As prevalence in wave two is known to be spreading within and from younger age groups the role of mixing patterns on spread needs to be disseminated to the wider public to adequately inform them how personal modifications in behaviour can contribute to the control of the epidemic. While universally imposed lockdowns and mitigation measures may be essential, personal behavioural mixing choices are powerful protectors.
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is continuing its spread across the world, claiming more than 160,000 lives and sickening more than 2,400,000 people as of April 21, 2020. Early research has reported a basic reproduction number (R0) between 2.2 to 3.6, implying that the majority of the population is at risk of infection if no intervention measures were undertaken. The true size of the COVID-19 epidemic remains unknown, as a significant proportion of infected individuals only exhibit mild symptoms or are even asymptomatic. A timely assessment of the evolving epidemic size is crucial for resource allocation and triage decisions. In this article, we modify the back-calculation algorithm to obtain a lower bound estimate of the number of COVID-19 infected persons in China in and outside the Hubei province. We estimate the infection density among infected and show that the drastic control measures enforced throughout China following the lockdown of Wuhan City effectively slowed down the spread of the disease in two weeks. We also investigate the COVID-19 epidemic size in South Korea and find a similar effect of its "test, trace, isolate, and treat" strategy. Our findings are expected to provide guidelines and enlightenment for surveillance and control activities of COVID-19 in other countries around the world.